Category: Beaux Kneauxs

9/30/16 Mailbag: Why Do Bad Teams Stay Bad?

Ronnie: Do you think the Panthers struggle to protect Cam this year could be combatted with a more quick-hitting predicated gameplan? Maybe they don’t feel that they have anyone that can get open quickly. Just feels like these slow-developing pass plays isn’t how you beat man-blitzes with a bad OL.

Sure, an offense with more predication on the quick pass game would help in theory, but you already described the rub – the Panthers’ personnel isn’t really suited for it at all. Mastering the quick pass game requires an incredible time and resource commitment, and they’re probably better off mastering the things that their personnel is built to do. Fleshing out their runningback and tight end screen game would probably be a better way to complement their deep drop pass game.

Teams like Denver and Minnesota are obviously bad matchups for their offense. But remember that the Denver defense also beat Tom Brady twice last year, and the New England pass game is as predicated on the quick game as you can possibly be.

Brent: Does a healthy Marqise Lee make the offense worse? It almost seems like Jags are obligated to feed him.

It’s not that they’re obligated to feed him, it’s that defenses are finding ways to funnel the ball to the Jaguars’ worst skill position players. It’s not unlike the problem Green Bay has with the ball being funneled to Davante Adams.

The crutch is that good quarterbacks make bad players look better than they are. The last throw I wrote about in this week’s Bortles piece is a perfect example of a quarterback playing poorly and making his wide receiver look worse. Lee’s bad enough as is, he doesn’t need help looking worse.

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Just How Bad is Blake Bortles?

I made a statement on the latest Keep Choppin’ Wood episode that Blaine Gabbert was playing better than Blake Bortles right now. The notion stemmed from a discussion Michael Lombardi and Bill Simmons recently had on the two on Simmons’ podcast.

The fact that we can even have a comparison between the two is highly disappointing. However, it’s not completely unfounded. Here’s a video from 2012 with current Jaguars Offensive Coordinator Greg Olsen. Olsen served as the Quarterback coach under the previous regime (Mike Mularkey’s sole season in Jacksonville). After the entire staff was fired, he went to Oakland and ran the offense in Derek Carr’s rookie year, then returned to Jacksonville as Jedd Fisch’s replacement on Gus Bradley’s staff. That’s a really convoluted way of saying that he’s worked directly with both Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bortles.

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9/23/16 (First Ever) Mailbag: Mizzou, the Packers, Coaching Psychology, and Black Quarterbacks

Welcome to the first Big Bored Mailbag! First, music.

Chris: How do I become a successful gambler when it comes to CFB and the NFL? 

You should ask a successful gambler. They don’t build casinos with gold walls because they lose money.

Connor: Why does nobody care about Mizzou? Back-to-back SEC East champs, back to back Big-12 North champs, they’ve put dudes in the league . I‘m biased, but we gotta be the most overlooked program in CFB relative to on-field and NFL success, and it bothers me more than it should so I always ask folks who aren’t from KC or StL what they see and think when Mizzou pops up.

Honestly, I think everyone reaches a point where they unconsciously black out all information on Missouri and Kansas because trying to figure out why Kansas City is in fucking Missouri and not Kansas is a traumatic childhood moment for anyone that doesn’t live in either state.

Mizzou’s run at the top of the SEC East kinda reminds me of when Georgia clamped down on the division in the early 2000s when both Florida and Tennessee were down. Nice teams during down periods, but they’re definitely in the shadow of Saban’s LSU championship team and the undefeated Auburn team of 2004. That’s the same spot Mizzou is in – they’re a good program, but the East is a little down, and they’ve been overshadowed by the SEC West.

Also, fuck Blaine Gabbert.

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Every Play Tells a Story: Derrick Henry & Forcing the Counter

My latest episode of Every Play Tells a Story looks at an Influence Play involving Derrick Henry as football’s version Floyd Mayweather.

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Every Play Tells a Story: The Danger of Logic

I’ve said before that the draft is hard because it forces us to use both linear and non-linear thinking styles.

Linear thinking is important because it’s efficient, process-driven, and based around deductive reasoning. As the quote above says, linear thinking can also be limiting because it can only follow the path laid out by the starting point. In terms of the draft, I think it’s particularly helpful in identifying physical traits, as those things are observable, measurable, testable, and verifiable (and this goes for both the film and metrics sides of the spectrum).

Non-linear thinking is important because understanding physical traits is only part of the player evaluation puzzle. The other side of the coin is trying to understand the context of a player’s decision-making on the field. And trying to understand someone’s thought-process is tough. It’s even tougher when we think linearly and anchor ourselves to the starting point of our conclusion. That sounds paradoxical, but it’s often how this works: “This play is good/bad or shows this trait (starting point) because of X, Y, Z (observable information).”

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